Gas: the regulated price will increase by almost 10% in July

Rise of 10% of the regulated gas tariff in July, alert on the electricity market: the energy bill of the French is likely to soar in the coming months. The regulated sales tariff (TRV) for natural gas supplied by Engie will increase “by 9.96% excluding tax on July 1, 2021”, the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) announced on Friday.

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“This sharp increase is mainly due (for 7.8%) to the rise in gas prices on the world market linked to the economic recovery,” she explains. The CRE details the reasons for this increase in the markets: recovery which boosts demand, low levels of gas stocks, maintenance operations in the North Sea, increase in gas consumption for electricity production, etc.

The other big factor is the rising cost of energy saving certificates (ESC), a device that obliges suppliers to finance energy savings. This sharp rise in regulated gas prices, which are due to disappear in 2023 but still concern a third of subscribers, however follows a period of decline during the crisis. In the end, they have only increased by 1.1% since January 1, 2019, indicates the CRE.

But changes in gas prices, announced from month to month, create significant volatility for consumers. "You just know ten days before the coming month what sauce you are going to be eaten in terms of pricing, and it makes it almost impossible for you to have budget predictability on this item of expenditure which is relatively important", remarks Antoine Autier , Deputy Head of the Studies Department at UFC-Que Choisir.

The government, which highlights aid for the most modest via the energy check in particular, explains that it was unable this year to smooth the rise over several months. “Unlike previous years, price expectations by market players do not, at this stage, show significant drops for the coming months: the situation is therefore not suitable for implementing price smoothing in July 2021. “, we explain to the Ministry of Ecological Transition.

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“Explosion”

The UFC also recently pointed to an increase of almost 50% in ten years in the regulated electricity sales tariff, which still concerns the vast majority of subscribers. But this rise is probably not over. The regulator has already announced an increase in the future tariff for the use of electricity networks, one of the components of the bill, to finance investments in the transmission network (of RTE) and distribution (of Enedis).

The CRE had thus calculated in December "average tariff increases of 1.57% per year for RTE and 1.39% per year for Enedis, i.e. an increase of around 15 euros in the annual bill of a particularly by 2024". These network-related increases are usually reflected in the regulated tariffs on August 1. CRE also announces a tariff change on February 1, which this time reflects the evolution of electricity prices on the markets.

Some observers are expecting an increase in February. "What is almost certain is that it will be very important," said Frank Roubanovitch, president of the Liaison Committee of electricity-consuming companies (CLEEE). "Market prices are exploding at the moment, since we have gone in a few months from 40 euros (per MWh) to 72 euros", he notes.

These market prices reflect the evolution of the prices of carbon and certain raw materials such as gas. In addition, “there is an increasingly significant exposure of alternative suppliers to market prices rather than to nuclear, which leads to quasi-structural increases”, also regrets Antoine Autier. EDF's competitors have access to nuclear electricity produced by the historic player at a fixed and rather inexpensive price (42 euros per MWh). But this mechanism is capped and represents less than 30% of EDF's production. An increase in this ceiling would "lower prices mechanically", pleads Mr. Autier.

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